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Что ожидает ювелиров в 2015 году

21.12.2014

Что ожидает ювелиров в 2015 году

Эйфория от резкого рублёвого подорожания золота потихоньку пошла на спад, в головах топ менеджеров ювелирных компаний стали появляться неприятные мысли о дальнейшей не радужной предстоящей жизни.   

  Первое что сильно пугает ювелирного производителя - это нарастающие неплатежи. С одной стороны спад продаж конечному потребителю, о чём красноречиво говорит инструмент.

Запросы конечных потребителей на ювелирные изделия, смена тренда с роста на падение.

 

заинтересованность населения в покупке ювелирных изделий

 

С другой стороны спад в расширении торговых запасов оптовых покупателей и новая кредитная ставка в 33% годовых делают невыгодным кредитование под покупку излишнего металла, большего, чем реально могут купить наши потенциальные потребители. Добропорядочные партнёры вместо обещанных денег стали присылать возвратом запасы  накопленного металла за годы роста цены на золото, обгоняющего цену кредита.


Рост цены на золото обгоняющего кредит 


цена на золото

 

Реально сейчас появились предприятия, которые не закрыты только потому, что перебирковывают, переплавляют или шлифуют изделия со склада или полученные в качестве возврата.  Остальные просто закрыты из-за переполнения склада и отсутствия продаж. персонал распущен без оплаты.

 

Второе что особенно волнует костромских ювелирных производителей это давление на бизнес со стороны фискальных органов, часто обусловленное одним единственным фактом – отсутствием денег в бюджете области. Искусственное обескровливание финансовой системы помогает остановить рост курса доллара, но побочными эффектами имеет  кризис неплатежей и недоверие к банковской системе с безналичными расчётами. Знаете ли вы, что почти все банки брали длинные деньги в валюте, превращали их в рубли и раздавали их в России в качестве кредитов под больший процент на меньший срок. Весь этот бизнес накрылся медным тазом, с резким скачком курса доллара. Большинство наших банков банкроты, их балансы резко стали отрицательными, сейчас даже если все розданные рублёвые кредиты будут собраны, их не хватит на покупку и возврат валюты более крупным заграничным банкам.  Валюты нет, доступ к валюте ограничен санкциями, перекредитоваться не получится.

 

Весь наш ювелирный бизнес – это большой пузырь, надутый ростом цены на золото, золота в украшениях произведено на несколько лет вперёд. Нынешний скачёк рублёвой цены на золото, последний вдох в наш пузырь, сейчас начинается долгий и продолжительный выдох.

Ждите оглушительных банкротств.

 

Перечислим кратко все проблемы:

Дефицит рублей, снижение спроса.

Кредитная ставка в 33%

Кризис неплатежей, банковские банкротства.

Возможное снижение цены на золото.

 

Мы рассматриваем проблемы при стабильной политической ситуации. Долгие лета всем нам.

 

 


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